Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Investing in Asia

The Philippines is the most progressive economy in Southeast Asia, if not the whole of Asia, during the post-war period. But it went into a serious dive in the 1970s up to the early 1980s when Martial Law was implemented.

After the phenomenal "People Power", the Philippine economy was on a roller coaster ride, groping in the dark during the late 1980s, but showing some teeth during the early 1990s. Many observers said that it could have been a "tiger economy" by now if not for the Asian financial crisis that swept all the gains made during the decade.

Last year, the economy grew fast with record-breaking GDP figures, "hot money" and remittances were coming in, the property sector was upbeat, the stock market was bullish, and the peso exchange rate was strong versus the dollar. However, this year, a runaway inflation and weak peso seem wrecking havoc on the economy.

In the same manner that Myanmar, also known as Burma, was one of the richest country in Southeast Asia in the 1960s. But now it's the poorest. A military junta runs the country. It's the most corrupt country in the world, with high inflation, no infrastructure, and lack of education. However, it does have 2,000 kilometers of white sandy beaches, and huge reserves of natural resources. The country could be the next Thailand.

Another promising southeast Asian nation is Malaysia. Its most southern state Johor is a prime location in Asia. In fact, the Malaysians have made Johor their own special economic zone. Anyone looking to build a new Asian manufacturing plant will look at Johor. The place also is surrounded by beautiful beaches.

Going to the Korean peninsula, North Korea, who shares a border with China, has all the minerals and the cheap labor. On the other hand, South Korea has all the intellectual capital, the technology, and the expertise. It's the perfect match had these two countries merged.

South Korean retail space could appreciate when the North Koreans come flooding across to buy their first technological gadgets. Real estate is very cheap in northern part of South Korea. Since, it is the borderline, everyone's worried about wars and gun battles. And that's probably a good place to start developing retail establishments. By the way, South Korea will be providing the technology for the establishment of Cambodia's first stock exchange next year.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has the world's third-largest stash of foreign exchange reserves and holds some of the world's most competitive technology firms. Currently, it boasts of a 25% household savings rate. The country is also the home of Taipei 101, the world's second-tallest skyscraper, after the Burj Dubai, which houses the Taiwan Stock Exchange. However, its stock market is the worst performing stock market in Asia over the last 20 years. It's down 40% from 1990 levels. Nonetheless, there are several Taiwanese firms that are very profitable with average returns reaching 20% and they pay generous dividends. In addition, Taiwan elected a new president this year, who promised to bring China and Taiwan closer together. And for the first time in 60 years, direct flights started between the two countries.

Speaking of China, the country's capital Beijing has recently gained world prominence with its successful staging of the Olympics, whereby the country was able to showcase to the world its rich cultural heritage and economic might amidst urban smog and hazy backdrop. The country's largest manufacturing city, Shenzhen, is located right across the water from Hong Kong. Shenzhen has its own stock market, and is China's second largest port. The change in leadership preference in China, from engineers to economists, is seen as a welcome development as it will further open up the giant economy to foreign investments.

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